Electric Vehicles in use to grow 33% in 2025
By the end of 2025, 85mn electric vehicles (EVs)-cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks–are expected to be on the road, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc.
“Despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, we are projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64mn units in 2024 and increase 33% in 2025,” stated Jonathan Davenport, Sr Director Analyst, Gartner.
“Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur. This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models. The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide,” Davenport continued.
PHEVs
Globally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in use are forecast to total almost 62mn units by the end of 2025, an increase of 35% from 2024. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow at a slightly slower rate and reach an installed base of 23mn units in 2025, up 28% from 2024 (see Table 1).
Regionally, the ownership of EVs in China is projected to continue to dwarf the rest of the world’s combined installed base through 2025 and likely the next decade. Demand for EVs will steadily grow in Europe and North America, which is projected to account for 36% of global EVs in 2024. By 2025, Gartner estimates 49mn EVs will be on the road in China, compared to 20.6mn EVs in Europe and 10.4mn EVs in North America.
Recycling
With EV sales expected to rise year-over-year, a shortage of raw materials will not be easy to resolve. “A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, which, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation,” added Davenport.
“Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore,” said Davenport. “If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down. There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites,” he concluded.
