Businesses face a more interconnected landscape of geopolitical, supply chain and credit risks
The rapid transformation of GCC economies is creating unprecedented opportunities for businesses to expand across international markets. However, according to AU Group MEA, the same forces driving growth and diversification are also exposing companies to a new generation of trade risks that are increasingly interconnected and global in nature.
Findings from AU Group’s ‘Credit Insurance Market 2026’ study show that businesses are operating in an environment shaped by the return of trade protectionism, rising corporate insolvencies, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain disruption. Together, these factors are reshaping how companies assess and manage risk across international trade relationships.
The study notes that global business insolvencies increased by 6% in 2025 and are expected to rise by a further 4% in 2026. At the same time, new tariff measures, higher logistics costs and geopolitical tensions are creating greater uncertainty for companies engaged in cross-border trade.
Economic diversification
“As economic diversification accelerates across the region, companies are engaging with new markets, suppliers and customers at an unprecedented scale. Success in this environment will depend not only on identifying opportunities but also on understanding the evolving trade risks that accompany them,” commented Aurélien Paradis, Chief Executive Officer, AU Group MEA.
The findings are particularly relevant as Gulf economies continue to strengthen their positions as global hubs for trade, logistics, manufacturing, energy transition and investment. As companies expand beyond traditional markets and integrate into increasingly complex international supply chains, they face greater exposure to external economic and geopolitical developments.
Geopolitical tensions
The report highlights the Middle East’s strategic importance to global commerce, noting that despite heightened regional tensions and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, credit insurers have largely maintained their support for businesses and have not significantly reduced capacity across the region. This reflects confidence in the long-term resilience and importance of Gulf trade corridors.
According to AU Group MEA, the changing global environment requires businesses to move beyond traditional approaches to risk management and develop a more comprehensive understanding of how trade, credit, supply chains, financing and geopolitics interact.
As global trade routes evolve and new economic partnerships emerge, companies that successfully balance growth ambitions with greater visibility over their counterparties, supply chains and international exposures will be best positioned to thrive in the next phase of economic diversification.
Since 1929, AU Group, a brokerage and consultancy firm specializing in credit & political risk management and working capital financing, has been working alongside B2B companies.
