Africa will require 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026), as demographic expansion, economic growth, trade and tourism continue to drive demand for air connectivity across the continent. The forecast includes demand for 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody aircraft by 2045.
The outlook reflects the significant long-term potential of Africa’s aviation market. Passenger traffic from, to and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at 4.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), making it the continent with the second-fastest growing aviation market in the world after Asia.
Taking a closer look at the African market, Ethiopia is expected to see one of the strongest aviation growth rates, with origin-and-destination passenger traffic forecasted to increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.
Passenger growth
“As we look toward a future of unprecedented passenger growth, building a strong, collaborative aviation ecosystem will seamlessly connect communities, accelerate regional trade, and unlock new avenues of shared prosperity across Ethiopia and the whole continent,” commented Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus, Africa and Middle East
The propensity to travel is expected to rise significantly across major African markets. By 2045, yearly trips per capita are forecast to surge by 150% in Ethiopia and increase by 100% in both Nigeria and South Africa.
Africa is also accelerating the transition towards latest generation aircraft, with these aircraft expected to represent 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025. This fleet modernisation will help boost efficiency and support the long-term sustainability of Africa’s aviation sector.
