DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, 2025 Special Update
Global trade is holding strong – even as U.S. tariffs hit highs not seen since the 1930s. DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business have released a special update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, offering the first systematic assessment of how international trade and business investment are reacting to shifting US trade policy under President Trump’s second term.
This edition draws on over 20mn data points from more than 25 sources to provide a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of globalization and global trade.
Global trade is projected to keep growing. The Tracker’s composite forecast projects a 2.5% annualized growth rate in global trade volumes from 2025 to 2029 – roughly matching the pace of the previous decade.
One reason trade can continue growing even as the U.S. raises tariffs is that only 13% of global goods imports went to the U.S. in 2024 and 9% of exports came from the US. Another is that most countries have not followed the U.S. in implementing broad tariff increases.
Trade opportunities
“At DHL, we are ready to help our customers seize the countless trade opportunities that continue to emerge across international markets,” stated John Pearson, CEO DHL Express.
While U.S. tariffs are predicted to slow global trade growth, they are not expected to stop it. Before the current wave of tariff increases (in January 2025), global goods trade volume was forecast to grow at a 3.1% annualized rate over the 2025 to 2029 period – since downgraded to 2.5%. North America experienced the steepest downgrade, with projections falling from 2.7% in January 2025 to just 1.5% by September. Most other regions experienced smaller downward revisions.
In contrast, forecasts were upgraded for South & Central America and the Caribbean, as well as the Middle East & North Africa. Most countries in these regions face relatively small U.S. tariff increases, and Middle East trade is expected to benefit from increased oil production and exports.
“In a time of evolving global trade dynamics, the Middle East & North Africa stands out as one of the few regions with upgraded growth forecasts. As the landscape shifts, DHL Express MENA stays focused on enabling our customers to grow, stay connected, and remain competitive across borders,” observed Abdulaziz Busbate, CEO DHL Express MENA.
Global Connectedness Tracker
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker also reveals that, in the first half of 2025, international trade grew faster than in any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound. U.S. imports surged early in 2025 as buyers rushed to frontload purchases ahead of tariff hikes.
Data on international corporate investment during the first half of 2025 were mixed, but they underscore the general resilience of global business. There was no pattern of companies redirecting investment from foreign to domestic markets.
“Trade and international business investment trends so far in 2025 do not support the view that globalization has gone into reverse,” remarked Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Centre for the Future of Management.
Rival geopolitical blocs
Despite 2024 marking the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker shows no major split of the world economy between rival geopolitical blocs.
Contrary to popular belief, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker indicates that trade is not becoming more regional. In fact, the average distance that traded goods traveled rose to a new record of about 5,000 kilometers during the first half of 2025.
The report also measures the wider phenomenon of globalization based on trade, capital, information, and people flows. It uses a scale running from 0% (no flows across national borders) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). Currently, the global level stands at 25%, nearly unchanged since its record high in 2022.
